Dallas Fed Sep Production Index

Dallas Fed Sep Production Index -0.5 Vs -9.7 In Aug

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Texas-area overall manufacturing activity was still contracting in September but production was close to neutral, according to a report released Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

The bank said its production index for the current month rose to -0.5 from -9.7 in August, while its general activity index improved to -6.4 from -9.1.

In the report, readings below 0 indicate contraction, and positive numbers indicate expanding activity.

The Dallas Fed said hiring also showed some progress, though the index remained in negative territory. The employment index stood at -8.1 from -15.7 in the prior month.

The new-orders index turned positive in September, rising to 8.0 from -1.7 in August. The shipments index also turned positive, increasing to 0.3 from -11.2 in August.

The prices-paid index, at 9.8, was near the 9.9 reading of August, while the prices-received index was -17.9 from -21.4.The gap between prices paid and prices received indicates that, while energy prices may by pushing up input costs, companies still have little power to mark up the prices of their own products.

In August, the Dallas Fed began to include data based on seasonal adjustments.

 

What is a Carry Trade

Additional Information

What is a Carry Trade

All that is needed to understand the carry trade concept is a basic knowledge of foreign exchange and interest rates differentials. Each currency has a different interest rate attached to it determined partly by policy authorities and partly by market demand. When taking a foreign exchange position a trader holds long position one currency and short position in another. Each day, the trader will collect the interest on the long side of their trade and pay the interest on the short side. If the interest rate on the purchased currency is higher than that of the sold currency, the result is a net inflow of interest. If the sold currency’s interest rate is greater than the purchased currency’s rate, the trader must pay the net interest.

Carry Trade As A Strategy

For many years, money managers and banks have utilized the inflow and outflow of yield to collect consistent income in times of low volatility and high risk appetite. Holding only one or two currency pairs would invite considerable idiosyncratic risk (or risk related to those few pairs held); so traders create portfolios of various carry trade pairs to diversify risk from any single pair and isolate exposure to demand for yield. However, even with risk diversified away from any one pair, a carry basket is still exposed to those conditions that render this yield seeking strategy undesirable, such as: high volatility, small interest rate differentials or a general aversion to risk. Therefore, the carry trade will consistently collect an interest income, but there are still situation when the carry trade can face large drawdowns in certain market conditions. As such, a trader needs to decide when it is time to underweight or overweight their carry trade exposure.

What is the DailyFX Volatility Index:

What is the DailyFX Volatility Index:

The DailyFX Volatility Index measures the general level of volatility in the currency market. The index is a composite of the implied volatility in options underlying a basket of currencies. Our basket is equally weighed and composed of some of the most liquid currency pairs in the Foreign exchange market.

In reading this graph, whenever the DailyFX Volatility Index rises, it suggests traders expect the currency market to be more active in the coming days and weeks. Since carry trades underperform when volatility is high (due to the threat of capital losses that may overwhelm carry income), a rise in volatility is unfavorable for the strategy.

What are Risk Reversals:

Risk reversals are the difference in volatility between similar (in expiration and relative strike levels) FX calls and put options. The measurement is calculated by finding the difference between the implied volatility of a call with a 25 Delta and a put with a 25 Delta. When Risk Reversals are skewed to the downside, it suggests volatility and therefore demand is greater for puts than for calls and traders are expecting the pair to fall; and visa versa.

We use risk reversals on USDJPY as global interest are bottoming after having fallen substantially over the past year or more. Both the US and Japanese benchmark lending rates are near zero and expected to remain there until at least the middle of 2010. This attributes level of stability to this pairs options that better allows it to follow investment trends. When Risk Reversals move to a negative extreme, it typically reflects a demand for safety of funds - an unfavorable condition for carry.

How are Rate Expectations calculated:

Forecasting rate decisions is notoriously speculative, yet the market is typically very efficient at predicting rate movements (and many economists and analysts even believe market prices influence policy decisions). To take advantage of the collective wisdom of the market in forecasting rate decisions, we will use a combination of long and short-term, risk-free interest rate assets to determine the cumulative movement the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will make over the coming 12 months. We have chosen the RBA as the Australian dollar is one of few currencies, still considered a high yielders.

To read this chart, any positive number represents an expected firming in the Australian benchmark lending rate over the coming year with each point representing one basis point change. When rate expectations rise, the carry differential is expected to increase and carry trades return improves.

Japanese Elections and the Yen

In what could be be called an “earth-shattering” election, Japan’s incumbent Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was finally unseated, after a 50-year stretch in power (excluding an 11-month “hiatus” in 1993). Given both the historic nature of the defeat and the margin of victory, it’s surprising that the election took place with so little fanfare. This is perhaps because the defeat was grounded more in opposition to the LDP than in support for the victorious Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), of which little is surprisingly known. For that reason, it’s extremely difficult to assess/predict the implications of the election, and I should preface this post by noting how speculative its conclusions are. Still, a few meaningful observations can be made.

First, the DPJ appears to be somewhat liberal when it comes to economic policy. “Yukio Hatoyama, who is poised to be named prime minister, has railed against ‘unrestrained market fundamentalism and financial capitalism.’ ” It’s not clear exactly what was meant by this pronouncement, although it’s certainly connected with the LDP’s pledge to increase spending on social programs: “It says it will improve health care, expand payments for the unemployed and provide a minimum monthly pension…and remove the tuition fees for public high schools of around ¥120,000 a year.”

It also aims to spearhead a change in the structure in Japan’s economy, away from big government projects and export-dependent industries, in favor of consumers and small businesses. Through a combination of tax cuts, transfer payments, and certain spending initiatives, it is intended that consumers will feel a greater sense of financial security, and open up their wallets. “If they succeed, firms that cater to domestic consumers, from clothing retailers to restaurants, are expected to prosper.” Given that the unemployment rate just touched a record low and that deflation has now set in, it certainly has its work cut out for it in this regard.

Second, a crisis is looming in Japan’s public debt, and it’s not clear if/how the DPJ can solve it. The spending measures approved by the LDP while its leaders were still in power are projected to bring Japan’s national debt to 200% of GDP, by far the highest in the industrialized world. Some analysts have ascribed a fiscal hawkishness to the DPJ, and believe that despite its campaign promises, it will actually move to rein in spending.

Other analysts are skeptical, and have argued that unless (consumption) taxes are raised, Japan will soon face a crisis of epic proportions. “We have a government coming in that’s committed to spend even more than the previous government at a time when increased borrowing to spend is just not a plausible option…A catastrophic breakdown of Japan’s public-sector finances will be the biggest story ever to hit the world economy in our times, eclipsing the current financial crisis,” said one economist. Given that the the DPJ has promised not to touch the consumption tax rate for at least four years, such a crisis could come sooner rather than later.

Third, DPJ leadership has pledged not to intervene on behalf of the Japanese Yen, as part of its program to re-structure the economy away from exports. This marks a huge shift from the previous LDP administration, whose policies and rhetoric were consistently geared towards helping exporters and holding down the Yen. “I basically believe that, in principle, it’s not right for the government to intervene in the free-market economy using its money, either in stock or foreign-exchange markets,” declared Hirohisa Fujii, Japan’s soon-to-be-appointed finance minster, who has voiced support for a strong Yen policy on the grounds that it will boost Japanese purchasing power. This contradicts his exchange rate policy during his first stint as finance minister, during which he managed repeated interventions on behalf of the Yen. Still, it should be noted that during his tenure, the Japanese Yen rose against the Dollar.

What do the markets think? The Japanese Yen rose on the news of the DPJ victory, which suggests that investors are inclined to give the new administration the benefit of the doubt when it comes to its pledge not to intervene in forex markets. At the same time, Japanese equities sank, consistent with expectations that the DPJ will be less supportive of big business then its predecessors. In the end, nothing is written in stone, and if the Japanese economy fails to revive, don’t be surprised if the DPJ does an about-face and decides that maybe a weak Yen isn’t so bad after all.

Week of Strong Bullish Rally for EUR/USD

EUR/USD was rising every single trading day this week despite rather poor dynamics of the U.S. macroeconomic indicators. We received a series of important reports this week and they mostly failed to support the dollar. EUR/USD is now trading near 1.4591 after opening at 1.4304 on Monday.

U.S. export and import prices report for August was released today. Import prices gained 2% compared to July after decreasing by 0.7%. They were expected to go up by 1%. Export prices were up by 0.7% after being down by 0.3% in July.

Wholesale inventories decreased by 1.4% in July in U.S. after 2.1% drop in June. The forecasts by the analysts projected a drop by 1%.

Other important reports this week included:

U.S. consumer credit was down by $21.6 billion in July after decreasing by $10.3 billion during the previous month. This indicator suggests a strong deterioration of the U.S. consumer sentiment.

Commercial crude oil inventories declined by 5.9 million barrels last week in the United States, meanwhile, total motor gasoline inventories rose by 2.1 million barrels. Nevertheless, the inventories are above the upper boundary of the average range for this time of year.

U.S. trade balance deficit reached $32 billion in the month of July — up from $27.5 billion in June. Forecasted value of the deficit was near $27.3 billion for July.

Initial jobless claims were down from 576k to 550k last week — even better than the median estimate of 560k.

Do you have what it takes to become a successful Forex Trader?

Forex trading, or any trading for that matter, is an occupation that requires experience and the accumulation of proficiency not unlike any other highly skilled profession. Whether you are a leading executive at a major publically traded company, a professional golfer or trading from your kitchen table, there are 5 key ingredients that one must possess in order to become successful.

1. You must be Passionate about what you do.

As Forex traders we all face one unique set of circumstances that does not exist in any other profession. We get rewarded for when we succeed and equally punished when we don’t! Could you image a corporate worker one quarter receiving a significant accomplishment bonus and the next quarter actually getting money taken from their paycheck for missing performance targets? Not on your life!

We do as Forex traders and that is why passion for what you do will carry you through the tough times that are part of your trading business. Asked yourself why you trade currencies and would you still do it if Forex were not potentially lucrative? Your answers will be quite revealing. You’ve got to feel your passion for trading!

2. You have to Apply Yourself and work hard at it.

I talk to so many people that enter into Forex trading with the aspiration of getting rich quick. Without putting the time and energy into really getting good at trading I see them jump from strategy to strategy looking for the goose that will lay the golden egg and eventually quitting while blaming everything else, except the true cause.

I got news for you – you are the goose and your Forex education is the golden egg. The magic has always resided with the magician and not some strategy. Work hard at trading and the rewards will eventually come your way. Remember what Tiger Woods said, “Funny, the harder I work the luckier I get.” Apply yourself as a trader and it will be no accident when your account begins to blossom.

3. You must Focus to really get good at what you do.

Now here is the hurdle most Forex traders struggle to get over. You have the passion and you are applying yourself to your trade, now focus and really get good at just at what you are doing. Be the expert to the experts at just that one thing. Become the master of a strategy or risk management methodologies. Really focus on getting good at it.

Stop jumping around or getting pulled from the last “latest and greatest” into the next “latest and greatest” and focus on one aspect of Forex trading and know it inside out. Know it strengths and weakness. Set your sights on becoming expert on just one aspect of trading and watch it spill over in all other aspects for your currency trading. This is the time to fail forward fast, use every setback as a learning opportunity that will propel you 3-steps ahead!

4. You must Push Yourself beyond the point everyone else might have quite.

In Forex Trading this is simple. Assume there is someone on the other side of your trade that is pushing themselves and sharpening their edge. To be successful you must you must do the same thing. Now is the time to examine your mental edge. Do you know the single most critical factor in any currency trade? It is you, the trader! Sharpening you mental edge is the most difficult aspect of trading, but also the most rewarding.

Start with your Forex education and gain the self-awareness necessary to maximize your strengths and suppress your weaknesses. Any expert will tell you that trading is 80% mental. It’s time to sharpen your trading to the razor’s edge and you do this through Forex education. A constant and never ending process that will become the cornerstone of your Forex experience.

5. You must, without wavering, be Determined and Persist to your objective.

You will fail. I can state that emphatically. However, you will not be defeated unless you allow your failures to control your trading. It is the old adage; failure is not falling of your horse, failure is refusing to get back on. Your success depends on your ability to dismiss the criticism, rejection, self-doubt and pressures associated with Forex trading.

Defining what is a winning trade, losing trade and bad trade will go a long way into developing you as a successful trader. Without the determination and persistence in all aspects of your trading life, obstacle will definitely appear closer and larger than they actually are.

Take a moment and assess yourself and your trading. Do you have the key elements to succeed? Which areas are presents development opportunities? When conducting a self-evaluation it is critical to be totally upfront and honest with yourself. After all, you will only be dishonest with yourself. One of the most interesting observations you can make is that all key success factors are interwoven. One factor supports the other. This is why your Forex education is a continuous journey of forex strategy, money management and self-mastery. Set these factors as your Forex education goals and take your currency trading to new heights.

Happy Trading!!

Forex Charts

Real Time Forex Charts for Successful Trading

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Simply possessing the information, however, is only half the battle. You need to be able to instantly take advantage of favorable currency fluctuations. Our robust forex trading software allows you to trade directly from forex charts; indeed, all the necessary tools are only a right click away, and forex trades require a mere two clicks. With our DealBook® 360 software, a forex broker or day trader simply has to click their mouse twice to make a foreign currency trade, which translates into greater opportunity to capitalize on developing trends without ever moving away from the crucial information contained in the real time forex charts. To try our software for yourself, and to experience trading directly from our up-to-the-second forex charts, sign up for a free $50K demo account with a DealBook® 360 trial and discover how utilizing Forex charts can benefit your foreign currency trading.

DealBook® 360 & Tools Traders Need

With DealBook® 360, GFT delivers access to the global forex market previously enjoyed solely by large traders, such as banks and hedge funds. Our leading-edge real time forex charts and powerful tools allow you to trade at the same rates and price enjoyed by major dealers, and enable you to capitalize on developing trends in the forex market. In addition, DealBook® 360 Mobile provides access to your forex trading account anywhere, anytime. For more information about our full range of forex products and services, please visit our homepage at GFTForex.com.

Global Forex Capital Markets

Forex Capital Market Opportunities

There are very few investment opportunities that hold the kind of potential that can be found in the foreign exchange, or forex market. The past decade of robust growth have fashioned the forex capital market into the largest financial market in the world with over $2 trillion USD traded daily. Tracing the history of the forex capital markets back in time, several efforts were made to stabilize the world economy in the wake of World War II with varying results. One well-known attempt, the Bretton Woods Accord, pegged all other currencies to the value of the U.S. dollar, which, at the time, was the most stable currency in the world. Additionally, the U.S. dollar was pegged to the value of gold and the combination of these two efforts brought relative stability back to the forex market and the world economy for awhile.

The Forex Capital Markets

In 1978 the free-floating system was officially mandated largely due to the break down of two independent agreements, which like the Bretton Woods Accord, sought to keep currency values pegged at a more constant level. Thus the forex capital markets was enlivened by the fact that foreign currency values could now fluctuate to a greater degree. These days, the major currencies are allowed to move independently of other currencies and this new approach is really responsible for the host of new opportunities that now exist in the forex capital market.

Forex Market Supply and Demand

Like any other market, the forex market is driven by the principles of supply and demand. There are times when a particular country will intervene to move currencies to their desired levels, however, the free-floating system is the rule of the day for most of the major world economies. This situation creates great opportunities in the forex capital market, which you can take advantage of with help from Global Forex Trading. Start exploring the opportunities the forex market has to offer with a free demo Forex trading account from GFT.

Additional Forex Market Information

If you would like to learn more about the long and vibrant history of the forex market, or if you would like to begin benefiting from the foreign currency trading opportunities available today, please use the following link: Global Forex Trading Forex Market.

US Dollar: Will a Recovery in Liquidity Usher in a Breakout?

Liquidity has been the bane of currency traders’ existence this past week; but a gradual return to normalcy may finally allow the dollar and general risk appetite to find its bearings once again. Even a perfunctory glance at a EURUSD chart conveys exaggerated congestion.

US Dollar: Will a Recovery in Liquidity Usher in a Breakout?

Fundamental Outlook for US Dollar: Bullish

- Nonfarm payrolls contracted at a slower pace in August, but the jobless rate jumped to a new 26-year high

- Fundamental dollar traders will have to look to market sentiment rather than fundamentals for direction

- Majors tax dollar support as the threat of a breakout looms next week

Liquidity has been the bane of currency traders’ existence this past week; but a gradual return to normalcy may finally allow the dollar and general risk appetite to find its bearings once again. Even a perfunctory glance at a EURUSD chart conveys exaggerated congestion. This pair – and indeed all of the majors – has been relegated to a controlled range or gradual channel for the better part of three months. Now, passing through the extended Labor Day weekend holiday in the US, we are encountering the worst of the unusual market conditions. It wasn’t by chance that the dollar tumbled to test its lows through this past Friday’s close. At critical levels, the speculative ranks could either attempt a break against the dollar while most of the American market is offline or wait for the liquidity pool to deepen and instead work to reconcile the divergent outlook between fundamentals and risk appetite.

The immediate concern heading into the new week is Monday’s holiday. While US markets will be offline, Asian and European traders can act upon any potential breakouts as there is time (though not necessarily momentum) to forge significant follow through. This leads us to consider what the primary driver for the dollar is. Did this past week’s data tip the fundamental scales and now we are just waiting for enough market depth to sustain a rally? Are interest rate expectations shifting against the FOMC pursuing interest rate hikes in the opening months of 2010? Have risk trends once again pegged the dollar as a key liquidity currency? In such a complex market, you can be sure that all of these themes are factoring in; but it is likely the whims of speculators and their appetite for risk that is truly at the helm.

Where will the fuel for a surge in optimism or the spark to a spate of panic come from? Generally, it can come from anywhere as long as the market is susceptible enough – and sentiment certainly seems primed for a dramatic shift. The comments coming from Finance Minister and other policy officials ahead of the G-20 meeting in London tomorrow has been largely supportive of keeping stimulus in place; but being prepared with an exit strategy when the right conditions were met. This is very likely to be the consensus tomorrow – and it would send the market a somewhat bearish outlook as it would reinforce the notion that the global recovery will be gradual. What’s more, with the full summit scheduled for the 24th 25th in Philadelphia, this pre-game meeting will be more for setting out framework.

Since investor sentiment in its simplest form is the balance of risk and reward, interest rate decisions from key policy bodies next week could in turn affect the dollar as a safe haven. The BoE is scheduled to announce rates on Thursday; but it is the commentary and outlook for growth as well as the size of the asset purchasing program that is truly remarkable. On the opposite end of the spectrum, we have the RBNZ’s deliberation. As a representative of what high yields global investors can reasonably expect, this benchmark will be used to set expectations for growth. The disparity between dim growth potential and the capital market’s steady rally over the past six months has only grown with time. It is already clear that the recovery will be slow; so it is not likely that market optimism can hold up long enough for data to catch up. But, as John Maynard Keynes said, “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” – JK

For more timely FX market analysis, visit our newly-launched Forex Stream Service.

GBP/USD Short Looking Good!

Just wanted to post a quick update on this trade that triggered yesterday. We actually closed out a portion at 1.6175, for a 175 pip gain. This pair is the biggest loser of the day so far (-1.04%), so it appears that other traders may have recognized the H&S pattern as well. The reason we closed a portion was because of the doji that occurred on the 5-minute chart, and the stochastic cross that occurred as well. See chart (click to enlarge)

While this trade started out as a pattern on the daily chart, we chose to drop down to the 5-minute chart to manage the trade as our first profit target was hit. Our trailing stop for the rest of the position is now at 1.6275, which is just above the most recent area of resistance, and also represents a 75 pip gain. So basically this is now a risk free trade!

To learn how you can spot trades such as this one, check out our inexpensive currency course!

Flight to Safety!

It looks like the flight to safety trade is in full effect today, with the Japanese Yen crosses and US Dollar leading the way, especially against the commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, and NZD). The US equity markets are down today but hopes are that the “September Effect” is not upon the equities markets. The September Effect says that historically this month has been the worst month for US stocks.

Because of the correlations between the equities and currency markets, this could mean gains for the Japanese Yen and US Dollar. It looks like AUD/USD was not able to close above resistance at .845 and we could be in for a double-top reversal at that level.

So keep your eyes on the US stock market, because if the September Effect does take hold, then it could be a wild ride for the commodity currencies.

Is Rob Booker Forex Training Any Good?

This is a question I receive often and unfortunately I can no longer give an honest answer which is the only answer that I ever want to give. This is due to the fact that I haven’t dedicated myself to Rob Booker’s training since 2006 making my experiences outdated. The good news is that over the coming months, I will be able to give you an honest opinion because I am in the initial phases of giving his tutelage another go. This is possible because he has no expiration date on his training. According to his training contract, "You have as long as you need. You never have to pay me anything again…."

At first glance, there have been many changes to his training. His chart school, which are Rob’s trade ideas for students in video format appear to be more interactive. He provides a web conferencing platform where any of his students can attend and ask questions via messenging or voice. Other basic course materials seem unchanged such as the course introduction, FX basics, backtesting, support and resistance, moving averages, and similar topics. These are really basic though and I don’t see any reason why these would ever change. The course materials are also for the totally inexperienced forex trader, someone who has really never explored Forex outside of this course.

His primary trading system which has many components to it is called the Arizona Rules. He was just developing this system back when I lost interest in his training so I haven’t really explored it. If anything, it seems like Rob’s attempt is to provide his students with a well tested and possibly profitable trading system while also providing a comprehensive trading plan and system that one can take knowledge from to develop their own forex trading system.

Economic Data Could Provide Basis for Higher U.S. Dollar

Dollar forex trading forecast

Economic data being released today could provide the basis for a higher U.S. dollar on the currency market. The U.S. dollar forex trading forecast has been linked to risk a great deal in the past months since the global financial crisis.

Right now, there is speculation that economic data will soon be showing some concerning information about where we are headed. GFT’s Boris Schlossberg reports on FX360 about the focus today:

In North America today, the focus is on ADP employment report with markets anticipating a -250K print. Although the ADP numbers has been notoriously spotty in matching the NFP results, any material deviation from consensus could still produce a meaningful impact on equities and risk FX. Yesterday’s sharp drop in stocks suggests that traders are beginning to have second thoughts about the recovery trade and if today’s ADP data disappoints we could see an acceleration of risk aversion flows as the day progresses.

So far, the U.S. dollar has been mixed in forex trading. The greenback is down against the pound, but up against the euro. Right now, gold prices are moving with the U.S. dollar against the euro in forex trading. Gold is gaining as safe haven investments become popular again.